By Sharon Byrne
The 24th District Congressional race between Lois Capps and Abel Maldonado is one of the most watched in the country. National Republicans are taking serious interest, rubbing their hands in gleeful anticipation, as they smell a serious chance to take the seat.
Redistricting is the reason for their excitement. Look at the new district voter registration breakout:

Notice the near-even split between Dems and Republicans now. The 24th is now very competitive. Even so, there’s a longtime, popular incumbent: Capps. It’s always daunting to try to unseat an incumbent, but the challenger in this case has some distinct advantages.
Advantage 1: Maldonado is Latino. There’s a sizeable Latino vote in this district. One could reasonably predict that some traditionally Democratic Latinos will vote for him. Thus, the campaign headquarters planted squarely on Milpas St, a strategy that is clearly working. It looks like a Maldonado-for-Congress truck exploded – his signs and enormous banners dominate the area.
Advantage 2: He’s moderate. So much so that local Republicans are huffing that he’s not conservative enough for them. Those mutterings won’t lead them to vote for Capps, though. Conventional wisdom is that Republicans can be counted on to vote early, and to vote Republican.
Advantage 3: Maldonado has big name recognition. That leads to…
Advantage 4: Campaign contributions. Both candidates have large war chests:

Now, if every Republican votes for Abel, and every Democrat for Lois, we’ll be looking at pretty much a dead heat, given the near-even numbers of Democrat and Republican voters.
Thus, the big story here is that the Independents will decide this race.
‘Independents’, or Indies, for short, consist of 3rd party (green pie slice), and Decline-to-State (DTS) (yellow pie-slice) voters. Note: there is an American Independent Party. They are counted in with Libertarians, Greens, and other 3rd parties. ‘Indies’ have not registered as Republican or Democrat, and can’t be counted on to predict election outcomes via traditional party registration methods.
That’s got to be making both campaigns sweat: their chance for a win comes down to betting the farm on an unpredictable crowd.
And a sizeable one at that: Indies comprise 26% of registered voters in the 24th Congressional District.
Maybe Indies can start a new chant a la Occupy:
We are the 26%!
The good news is both candidates will have to do some things differently to win the Indies. They’ll have to work a lot harder. That should benefit all voters.
Indies like moderates. We admire people who cross party lines, even buck their party, to do the right thing by the public.
Indies are also in a strong anti-incumbent mood at the moment, as the Pew Research Center points out:
The level of anti-incumbent sentiment among independents is extensive. For the first time on record, more than seven in ten independents (73%) say that most members of Congress should not be reelected. Just 37% of independent voters would like to see their representative reelected to Congress while 43% would not. (emphasis added)
Better change the Indie rallying cry to We are the 73%!!
Traditional party-aligned political operatives can’t digest DTS / Indies. They keep thinking, ‘well you’ve got to be aligned with somebody’.
While that is how one thinks when safely ensconced behind party lines with many others who all think the exact same way, Indies deliberately step outside those lines. We balk at calls to advance party agendas, because parties typically sacrifice the greater good for the party’s own advancement. No thanks.
We look at the issues. We want someone that thinks about what’s best for the public as a whole. We’re concerned about the economy; jobs; exorbitant spending on ridiculous projects while the very real needs of our citizens go unmet; the debt (each American’s share is $50k+); sensible immigration reform; health care that is affordable, accessible, AND sustainable; and most importantly, our country’s future.
We look for the candidate that wants to serve, that listens and responds with thoughtful solutions, isn’t spouting party rhetoric, and doesn’t play silly political games.
If you want to drive Indie voters into the opposition camp, keep deploying partisan tactics and vote party line. Attempt to shame Indies for not playing the role of good little Democrat or Republican. There is nothing an Indie hates more. Take a lot of money from outside the district, and/or state. Big money campaign contributions from special interests means you’ll be serving your clients, not we the people.
If you want to win Indie voters, make haste in articulating a well thought-out vision to address our collective problems in this country. Buck your party when they pursue silly aims. Prove that you can be moderate, and counted on to do the right thing by the country, and your district.
This is the first time the Congressional race for our district has depended on winning Indies. It will be very interesting indeed to see how these candidates rise to that challenge.